Prediction Markets

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents MicroStrategy. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barron Trump officially launches a token by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only tokens which are confirmed to have been launched by Barron Trump, either through posts from official social media channels, or otherwise confirmed by public statements will qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of Belarus, or any official state or contracted entity acting on behalf of the government, begins actively mining Bitcoin at any point between March 4, and May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mining must involve actual participation in the Bitcoin network by validating transactions and adding new blocks to the blockchain. Mere announcements, exploratory discussions, or policy proposals without verified mining activity will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes." The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of Belarus, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea’s token is between $1,000,000,000 (inclusive) and $3,000,000,000 (exclusive) 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, “locked” tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch. “1 day after launch” is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn’t launch a token by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTCUSDT between 21 Jan '25 12:00 and 30 Jun '25 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTCUSDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jack Dorsey publicly confirms he is Bitcoin creator "Satoshi Nakamoto", or part of a collective called "Satoshi Nakamoto", by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements will qualify. Announcements that are jokes, or otherwise aren't credible won't count. If Dorsey denies being Bitcoin's creator Satoshi Nakamoto between February 20, and April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is public statements from Jack Dorsey.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for DOGEUSDT between 21 Jan '24 13:00 and 30 Jun '25 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the DOGEUSDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/DOGE_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance DOGEUSDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is no token launched by Opensea before June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, “locked” tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch. “1 day after launch” is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for SOLUSDT between 21 Jan '25 12:00 and 30 Jun '25 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOLUSDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOLUSDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.

On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.