Prediction Markets

On March 6, 2025, the Texas Senate passed S.B. 21, a bill to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, with a 25-5 vote, now awaiting a House floor vote. This market will resolve to "Yes" if S.B. 21, the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act, is signed into law by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source will be official information from the Texas Legislature or a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated holds 650,000 or more bitcoins at any point by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for DOGEUSDT between 21 Jan '24 13:00 and 30 Jun '25 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the DOGEUSDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/DOGE_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance DOGEUSDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.

On February 3, Donald Trump signed an executive order creating a sovereign wealth fund (see: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/03/trump-sovereign-wealth-fund-tiktok). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the sovereign wealth fund created by the Trump administration acquires any Bitcoin (including through an ETF) by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The fund must actually acquire Bitcoin or a Bitcoin position in order to qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Announcements of the intention to acquire Bitcoin will not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for XRPUSDT between 21 Jan '24 13:00 and 30 Jun '25 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRPUSDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRPUSDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any spot Dogecoin ETF receives approval from the SEC by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Approval under Rule 19-4b will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, even if there has not been an S-1 approval. Similarly, an S-1 approval without a 19-4b approval will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any spot Litecoin ETF receives approval from the SEC by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Approval under Rule 19-4b will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, even if there has not been an S-1 approval. Similarly, an S-1 approval without a 19-4b approval will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named entity launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between July 1, 12:00 AM and August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the named entity's team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea’s token is between $5,000,000,000 (inclusive) and $10,000,000,000 (exclusive) 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, “locked” tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch. “1 day after launch” is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn’t launch a token by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for SOLUSDT between 21 Jan '25 12:00 and 30 Jun '25 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOLUSDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOLUSDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.